Signups ONW (6/10) Round X+3: Bound to Happen Eventually
07-23-2015, 01:14 AM
Post: #101
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
yeah hi sorry im an insomniac. still an insomniac also. at least that helped me to make my last claim because i knew nobody was an insomniac except me.

dc seems town to me, thanks to his reaction, unless hes a very good actor.

apw is just weird because hes been going "aw friiiiiiiiiiiig" all day after his mason claim. either tanner or town i guess.

okay um let me just keep stuff in order:

1. Palamedes - mason (now robber)
2. Speedchuck - ?
3. dichotomousCreator - ? (probably town)
4. AProcrastinatingWriter - ? (probably tanner)
5. phantomEclipse - seer
6. Alter Eagle - robber mason
7. Mirdini - ?
8. Garuru - insomniac
9. The Other Guy - doppel mason
10. Dank Memes - mason

unused:
troublemaker
minion
?

unclaimed roles: werewolf, werewolf, drunk, tanner, hunter

mirdini are you the drunk

(if he is then hes 1/3 a minion so we shouldnt lynch him anyways)

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:43 AM
Post: #102
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
If dini (or anyone else who hasn't claimed) is the drunk, odds are they wouldn't want to claim it. Given the remaining roles, there's a 2/3 chance that they would be something they don't want to be....

Then again, if they aren't the drunk, there's an even bigger chance.

Hm.
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:44 AM
Post: #103
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 12:45 AM)Mirdini Wrote:  AHM DRUNK

??????

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 02:11 AM
Post: #104
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 12:45 AM)Mirdini Wrote:  Apologies for not contributing more but a. (I was asleep/at work) AHM DRUNK n' b. you Actual Masons seem to have things covered pretty well anyhow.

Also interested in what Speedchuck has to say (as well as APW because it's p. apparent he's not a mason). I think I more or less agree with dC's analysis.

speaking of which dC hasn't claimed yet either iirc? just that he's 'town' unless I missed something.

I'm holding off claiming to see if I can catch any of the other non-claimers in a CC.

Speaking of which, dini is hammered and chuck has suspiciously failed to claim despite three requests. Lynch: Speedchuck time to speak up, dude.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 02:14 AM
Post: #105
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
EBWOP: Er, drunk hammered, not lynch hammered.

Also I just checked Garu's post, and yeah I'm the Hunter. No harm in saying it since it's the only non-scum role remaining, and I'd better claim it before the Tanner tries to.

In fact I'm fairly certain we just lynch Speed regardless of what else happens. Dini might be wolf/minion/tanner/whatever the fuck else, Garu's claim was-

...wait, shit, Garu faking a troublemaker on me (and Dank too I guess) was a really good way to determine I'm not the Insomniac before he claimed it. Unvote, not sure whether to vote him or Speed now.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 02:15 AM
Post: #106
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(DOUBLE EBWOP: Also Hunter isn't a claim anyone was going to use because it just gets you lynched through so it's not like I was going to catch anyone with it)

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 02:49 AM
Post: #107
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Okay geez I missed too much.

Yes I am a mason, but apparently a robber now. Alter Eagle stole my role and knew what it was come on he's town geez. Don't assume we don't know how much trouble the troublemaker makes though, a few of us have played our fair share of these.

Writer is a liar totally called it. Trying to hard which looks like minion/tanner but of course he could be a wolf but then he could assume that and be the minion or tanner and is the poison in the wine in front of me or the wine in front of you?

Also a liar possibly in one of pE/Garuru? Garu's claim does reek a little of trying to be granola (but he probably would have read pE's claim?) or minion/tanner trying to draw attention. Buying insomniac claim though, so probably not lynch material. Worth noting though that pE said there was only one wolf and then said he saw the troublemaker/minion.

@dC: I mean if there are three town votes, then minion votes, then both the wolves could jump on. I mean, again, that's not a thing that can happen so w/e. Also if a hunter trueclaims it's hardly a bad thing?
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:04 AM
Post: #108
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
The perfect storm (of townfirming):
1. Palamedes - masonrobber
2. Alter Eagle - robbermason
3. The Other Guy - doppel mason
4. Dank Memes - mason

Mostly Legit:
5. dichotomousCreator - Hunter (we might want to lynch you and have you hit our actual target to be safe kthanks)
6. phantomEclipse - seer (saw troublemaker and minion)
7. Garuru - insomniac

Other people:
8. Speedchuck - Who knows
9. AProcrastinatingWriter - Bad things
10. Mirdini - Drunk

1-4 are not something to be argued as far as I'm concerned, except in Bad World #1 where Alter Eagle is lying, which I could only really see him risking that early if he's the only wolf, which means pE is lying (tanner or minion) which doesn't make a lot of sense with no CC's to his claim - since again that would mean the three missing roles would have to be Seer, Robber, Werewolf, Troublemaker (if you've noticed that's four missing roles).

5-7 is pretty simple too. Either dC is lying or honest, and I think lynching him either way would solve it. pE is most likely town despite his best efforts (seriously man) because of what I brought up already. Garuru feels pretty good despite his botched troublemaker move, but that's partially meta from the time when granola ruined him doing the same thing.

8-10 is where it gets tricky. If pE is telling the truth (likely) we probably don't want to lynch Mirdini. However, Mirdini's smart enough to know that if he's a wolf. However again, no drunk counterclaim which means that there's another wolf out there AND he was lucky as shit guessing. So we probably shouldn't lynch him regardless. APW is something awful and I have to figure out if that means he's a wolf or the tanner.
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:08 AM
Post: #109
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 02:14 AM)dichotomousCreator Wrote:  Also I just checked Garu's post, and yeah I'm the Hunter.
Yeah no. Vote dC

Hunter here.
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:31 AM
Post: #110
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
And why didn't you claim?
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:33 AM
Post: #111
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
worth noting that hunter is pretty much the only thing thats safe to claim at this point.

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:55 AM
Post: #112
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
The reason I lied about being Masons was to attempt and check if Alter Eagle was legit. After that, I panicked a bit, and then thought maybe I could use that claim to capture scum - we were able to get down to a good amount of possibilities because of it. Or so I thought, at least.

Of course, at this stage in the game it's a lot easier to fight scum is, so hello Mirdini, you can't be drunk when I already am! Vote: Mirdini

[Image: g4osirL.jpg]
Reply
07-23-2015, 03:56 AM
Post: #113
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
EBWOP: Wait, hold on, didn't see those last few posts, probably weren't there, but that all means . . .

. . . huh. Hold on, lemme see where this goes. Unvote

[Image: g4osirL.jpg]
Reply
07-23-2015, 04:23 AM
Post: #114
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 02:49 AM)Palamedes Wrote:  Worth noting though that pE said there was only one wolf and then said he saw the troublemaker/minion.

actually i was making a hypothetical situation of possibilities

someone else (i think APW) was saying im the sole werewolf with someone else being tanner/minion

but that's not the case. If you had read what i said earlier. i was saying there is FOR SURE one wolf and then the other one is ww/tanner.

then there was the complete off chance that there are two werewolves and a tanner among us. but we know for sure that minion and troublemaker are not being used (unless drunk has swiped one of them) on that note

Who is/was the drunk.

The perfect storm (of townfirming):
1. Palamedes - masonrobber
2. Alter Eagle - robbermason
3. The Other Guy - doppel mason
4. Dank Memes - mason

Mostly Legit:
5. dichotomousCreator - Hunter?
6. phantomEclipse - seer (saw troublemaker and minion)
7. Garuru - insomniac

Other people:
8. Speedchuck - Hunter?
9. AProcrastinatingWriter - Drunk?
10. Mirdini - Drunk

thing to remember, hunter is a great claim for tanner

also Drunk CC? hahaha. unless mirdini was fooling around

also what did you pick last night APW?. I mean like, the card number

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 04:25 AM
Post: #115
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
also if DC actually is claiming hunter and so is speed.

we are not lynching them

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 04:27 AM
Post: #116
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
I'd actually have to check!

*checks*

Two, looks like.

[Image: g4osirL.jpg]
Reply
07-23-2015, 04:48 AM
Post: #117
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Mirdini should answer that as well before you drop anything pE.

Also we might need to lynch a hunter claim in a world where scum is hiding effectively in that or a drunk claim (since that's slightly more likely to backfire on us I think).
Reply
07-23-2015, 06:10 AM
Post: #118
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
we lynch one of the hunters and they target the other one.

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 06:15 AM
Post: #119
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
It is possible for drunk claims to backfire, but it's also possible for Hunter claims to backfire too. Though I'm sure you've thought of it, Pala, I'll say it out loud for everyone's sake: it's really easy to imagine a scenario where a Tanner waits for the hunter to claim, then counter-claims, just to ensure that what Garuru says should happen, er, happens.

Really, we're taking a risk no matter who we lynch! I'm gonna have to say Mirdini is the least risky at the moment, however. From everyone else's standpoint, sure it looks bad, but trust me: I'm the Drunk. He's not. Lynch him, for he is scum.

[Image: g4osirL.jpg]
Reply
07-23-2015, 06:17 AM
Post: #120
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
ebwop: er, unless the other ones a tanner... that ways a no-go.

but... at this point the wolves are either one of the hunters, the drunks, or the unused role. tanner is also in there, so it looks like the only choice we have is to go for a 2/3.

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 06:22 AM
Post: #121
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
if the above is true, i'm gonna throw in my lot with vote: dichotomousCreator assuming he will shoot Speedchuck.

i am pretty sure this is factually the best chance we have of winning. if tannerchuck wins then gg on getting in a perfect claimspot.

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 06:42 AM
Post: #122
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 06:15 AM)AProcrastinatingWriter Wrote:  From everyone else's standpoint, sure it looks bad, but trust me

[Image: loldogs-funny-dog-pictures-dont-wanna.jpg?w=468]

Vote dC

#indCwetrust
Reply
07-23-2015, 08:51 AM
Post: #123
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Lynch: Speedchuck

I'm OK with going through me to get him, but I revenge kill my vote target so I've gotta be voting him.

NOW HIGHLY RELEVANT MODQUERY: If the Hunter hits the Tanner, does the Tanner win? (I'd put more money on APW or Garu being the Tanner, so by my analysis Speed is very likely a wolf, but this is still a vaguely worrisome possibility)

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 08:56 AM
Post: #124
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
EBWOP: Also Pala, quick note about this setup, you should never in general lynch Hunter claims at face value. Remember that Tanner and Minion exist (Minion doesn't due to pE's peek this time around though) so a lying Hunter claim (like Speed's) could be a Tanner hoping to get lynched.

...for this reason I'm vaguely leery of targeting in the Hunter claim instead of the Drunk claim. If the Tanner doesn't win by getting revenge killed though I'd respectfully ask Speed to bow out if he is the Tanner since me revenge killing him would just give the win to the wolves.

If the tanner DOES win from revenge killing, I think we still do the "lynch me target Speed" thing but ugh surely Speed must have known this was how it would play out when he claimed

ah shit now I'M drunk. Lousy wine. ._.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 10:33 AM
Post: #125
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 08:56 AM)dichotomousCreator Wrote:  ah shit now I'M drunk. Lousy wine. ._.

Nope that's still me (yes that was a drunk claim if it wasn't explicit enough for you.

Feeling like APW's the tanner at this point though so I'd vote DC for mutually hunterclaim assurec destruction but might as well wait on the modclari
Reply
07-23-2015, 10:37 AM
Post: #126
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
I am pretty sure that (given uncontested seerclaim) we're dealing with at least one werewolf, so Hunter shooting the Tanner would actually result in wolfwin?
Reply
07-23-2015, 10:56 AM
Post: #127
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Oh hey Deens what number Unused Card did you take?
Reply
07-23-2015, 11:03 AM
Post: #128
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
It depends. The point I want clarification on is whether the Tanner needs to be the primary lynch target or just die.

If it's the former, then I'd like to ask tanner!Speedchuck to claim Tanner since if we lynch me and I hit him then we both lose anyway (essentially he'll be kingmaking, so it's ultimately up to him how he plays it, but I'd like him to step forward in that scenario)

If it's the latter, then obviously he won't do that since he wins if I target him. In that case, I think on balance we risk it since APW is more likely to be the Tanner in my opinion than Chuck...

...except there's no reason for Chuck to CC me instead of the Insomniac. He had the choice when Garu claimed to launch his CC then, and surely he must have known how a hunter CC ends. Plus Garu was under a lot more doubt than I was. I really just don't like this, I can't see any reason for werewolf!Chuck to counterclaim me instead of Garu.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 11:12 AM
Post: #129
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
wait shit werewolf!Chuck could get out of being killed by fakeclaiming Tanner in that case. There's a sentence I never thought I'd have to say >_>

Kay, doesn't matter, we'll just need to decide who we think the Tanner is.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 11:15 AM
Post: #130
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Ok so here's the breakdown of claims and junk:

Yours Truly: Robber, robbed Pala and is now Mason
Pala: Mason
Dank Memes: Mason
The Other Guy: Doppeldanker, seen by other two masons

dC: Hunter
Speedchuck:Hunter CC
Garuru: Insomniac (unchanged)
pE: Seer (saw Troublemaker and Minion unused)
Mirdini: Drunk
APW: Antitown of some desc, last claim was Drunk CC



Unused (vis pE seerclaim): Troublefucker, Minion, ???)
Unseen: Werewolf, Tanner, Sparewolf

So there's an initial 2/3 chance the legit pickled between our drunkcclaims got Minion or Troublemaker (ergo town loss when lynched),
in the remaining 1/3 of possibilities the last slot is 2/3 times a werewolf or 1/3 town loss

So (given no additional information about that last unSeencard) 7/9 of the time lynching the "real" drunkclaim will be town loss, 2/9 they stumbled on the unSeen werewolf card and we win if we lynch them, which is not great odds

The liar-drunk (probably APW) meanwhile is one of the three unSeen roles, Werewolf, Werewolf, Tanner. A 6/9 chance to lynch and win, 3/9 to hit the tanner and lose.

MEANWHILE

the legit hunterclaim (probably dC) can hit the Fakedrunk or the Fakehunter for similar odds of winning (2/3 to hit a Wolf, 1/3 likely-lose due to surviving werewolves if the target was the Tanner)

Lynching the guy who isn't the Hunter runs 2/3 odds of winning because they're a wolf


This is mostly rehashing things people have said but I like having my ducks in order
Reply
07-23-2015, 11:25 AM
Post: #131
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Alternative breakdown:

among dC, Speedchuck, Mirdini, APW, and the unSeen unused card, we have Hunter, Drunk (now any of Town/Minion/Wolf/Tanner), Werewolf, Sparewolf, and Tanner.

I think, short of mod confirmation that the unused cards are numbered the same way for Drunks and Seers, (and Mirdini picking a number before pE reveals which ones he chose), we can't be any more certain about things than we are now.
Reply
07-23-2015, 11:48 AM
Post: #132
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
That's pretty much the size of it...however, throw Garu and the Insomniac card in there. Garu's not really confirmed by anything, so werewolf!Garu or tanner!Garu and unused!Insomniac is still possible. pE's seerclaim is solid by overwhelming lack of CC (when seer OR troublemaker would CC and his info has proved correct to date) but Garu could still have claimed the final face-down card (I am mildly suspicious due to the Troublemaker gambit, which while arguably effective was a good way to flush for potential insomniacs)

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:15 PM
Post: #133
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
So the main points of contention are:
- Who out of APW/dini is the fakeclaim?
- Is Chuck a werewolf or the tanner?
- Is Garu a werewolf, the tanner, or the insomniac?
- Is the face down card werewolf, tanner, or insomniac?

Note that Garu would need a certain amount of luck to pull off his Insomniac claim, but when he did it he knew I wasn't an Insomniac (because I didn't immediately bust his Troublemaker claim), pE wasn't an Insomniac (uncontested Seer claim) and that none of the four Mason party townies were insomniacs. Assuming he's a wolf, he'd know he had a wolf buddy who couldn't CC him either. So his odds were about 1 in 3 that he'd get off scot free and 2 in 3 that he'd get counterclaimed in a no-proof situation. Given that the latter would be nigh certain if he waited to claim until last (or he'd end up as "Insomniac or scum 50/50" anyway, effectively "counterclaimed" by the last face-down card), there's honestly not much reason for him NOT to try it.

On top of that, Garu is CLEARLY not the Tanner. He has made no effort to get lynched and if scum his claim hides him quite well at this stage. On the other hand, we don't actually need to hit him if he's one of two wolves and APW's behaviour has been very Tanner-like so far. If THAT is the case, then hitting me to get Chuck is the safest bet.

Basically where I'm at right now is I believe myself (duh) and Mirdini (based on APW's behaviour). Between Garu/APW/Chuck/unused card, we have two wolves, the Tanner, and the Insomniac. More specifically, between Garu and the final unused card there's one wolf and the Insomniac, and between APW, Mirdini, and Chuck there's the other wolf, the Drunk, and the Tanner. And I *THINK* Mirdini is the Drunk.

That gives us about 50/50 no matter where we shoot (I reckon the odds of dini being scum are lower, but there's the chance that even if he IS the drunk lynching him hits the spare wolf card and we win anyway, so that balances out).

So the possible losses from this scenario are:
- Tanner is chuck, we shoot into the Hunter claim and lose
- Garu is trueclaiming, we shoot Garu and lose
- Drunk claimer we hit was the true Drunk and didn't get a werewolf card, we lose, or
- We hit the fake Drunk but they're the tanner. We lose.

So ultimately we can try to pick the Tanner out of the two claim pairs or we can gamble on wolf!Garu. I'm honestly not sure what the best option is. I THINK we're dealing with tanner!APW, wolf!Chuck, and Idon'tactuallycarewhat!Garu but that's just me. Even if Garu IS a wolf and chuck didn't want to CC him, he could have CC'd drunk as a wolf.

Ultimately it comes down to wine. Either Chuck is a werewolf hoping we'll mistake him for the tanner, or the tanner hoping we'll mistake him for a werewolf, and there's no good way to tell because he's kept so quiet. To be honest, he's played this pretty well whichever one he is, we can't get better than a 50/50 shot on him.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:18 PM
Post: #134
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
It doesn't help that APW's tanner-like behaviour might be wolf!APW pretending to be tanner!APW pretending to be town. wolf!APW masquerading as tanner!APW + tanner!Chuck masquerading as wolf!Chuck + whateverthefuck Garu would make a certain amount of sense. But again, it's a question of what wine level we think the people involved are at. I think at this point we maybe consider meta on the people in question a little, then just bite the bullet and take the chance.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:32 PM
Post: #135
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Ugh, right, yeah. Although my brain tends to unfocus when I'm reading Mafia posts, your read on the situation feels like town trying to puzzle out versus scum trying to look like town trying to puzzle things out. This basically confirms to me that you're the Hunter and Speedchuck (who has been megacage) is antitown, likelier to be wolf than tanner (by dint of APW's antitown behaviour being more consistent with someone looking to eat lynch).

I want to re-read the haps after you (dC) and Dank Memes thought you were troublefucked but I'm feeling decent about this, once we know the full endstate effects of Hunter bullets.


All we need really need before dayend are the following:
Modquery: Who wins if the Hunter shoots the Tanner if there are wolves/a minion (via drunking) in the game?
Mirdini: Which number card do you claim to have drunk'd?
pE: Which cards did you See?
Speedchuck+Garu: reads plz
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:35 PM
Post: #136
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
I'm kind of tempted to argue that pE Mirdini APW is our scumteam

pE is WW and he's lying about the minion
APW is the minion
and Mirdini is the WW, since APW named Mirdini as masonbro, and then tried to bus Mirdini after everyone was like "APW is totes minion"

Although that does require an extremely ballsy play by pE, since he posted that claim super early.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:48 PM
Post: #137
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Potentially, except Mirdini's last read on APW was that he was Tanner (#125). APW's potentially an easy lynch to push with the double-chance (from Wolf!dini's perspective) he's Minion, so claiming Tanner and being forced for a town player to raise the possibility before he can plausibly change his read is risky?
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:50 PM
Post: #138
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
This is just a gut thing and I'm tired and bad at the explains, but: If Deens is Wolf he'd probably be pushing for the easiest lynch and/or trying to make a case that the easiest lynch (APW) isn't Tanner/Minion

I dunno unless someone wants to say /anything/ to contest pE's claim I think it holds up? Having no troublemaker is a godsend though
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:51 PM
Post: #139
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Dank: Explain the Hunter CC, explain why pE would gamble on both Seer AND Troublemaker being face-down that early in the game. Those are incredibly long odds, and if he DID attempt that we'd be much more likely to be in a world where he eats a CC from one of those two for his trouble.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:52 PM
Post: #140
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 12:32 PM)Alter Eagle Wrote:  Speedchuck+Garu: reads plz

ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

off the top of my head chuck sidled into a super convenient claim so hes my number 1, but id prefer he dies by hunter.

everybody else is town except apw who is ??? and also not a priority.

like, i'd like to play mindgames further but to me, this game is 2/3 solved and that's the best we'll get.

i suppose we could try to read which one of chuck or apw is acting more tanner-ish? my moneys on apw for this one btw, he seems to be trying to look like hes flailing by saying "ahh i fucked up" many times, while chuck is too far removed from the spotlight to be a tanner. this tilts the vote in chuck's favor, naturally.

vote: dayend

[Image: sig.gif]
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:53 PM
Post: #141
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
EBWOP: Oh oops tanner!Chuck is still the Hunter explanation.

Still, the only scenario in which wolf!pE is even SLIGHTLY likely is if he's the only wolf, saw the face-down Seer card, and decided to gamble that there was no Troublemaker (or potentially the other way around i.e. he saw the Troublemaker card and gambled on a lack of Seer). That'd mean that Chuck and <one of APW/dini> are Tanner and Minion.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 12:57 PM
Post: #142
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
MORE EBWOP: I largely agree with Garu over the Tanner question, my only misgiving is that I can't explain why wolf!Chuck counterclaimed me instead of Garu or Dini. It could be an error on his part or a double bluff, or he could just be trying to ensure his death because that's how hunter CCs work.

OTOH Garu pushing for Chuck's death (given that chuck must be antitown) means we're probably in town!Garu world. wolf!Garu loses if we hit wolf!Chuck OR tanner!Chuck, and so does tanner!Garu. The only Garu that wins if we kill Chuck is town!Garu.

Yeah alright vote: dayend. Just to confirm, I'm still on Lynch: Speedchuck. Well played if you're the Tanner, dude, very subtle. Not bad if you're a wolf, either, the minimalistic play is making killing you seriously nerve-wracking.

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:00 PM
Post: #143
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
If the Hunter shoots the Tanner, the Tanner wins, everyone else loses.

The Unused cards are all in the same order for Seer, Drunk, and Lone Wolf.
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:03 PM
Post: #144
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
oh shit UNVOTE: DAYEND

kay there's a little more info available here (specifically, which card dini picked)

I don't THINK it can change anything (tanner!APW is still likely enough to make shooting into the drunk claim bad even if we determine dini could well be a bonus wolf) but still

WHOA CHECK OUT ALL THESE MAFIA GAMES GUYS
(06-06-2016 06:12 AM)Coldblooded Wrote:  if there was ever a scumteam to overthink things and make a huge dramatic production out of day one, DC and Granola would probably be it.
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:06 PM
Post: #145
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
Current Votals
dichotomousCreator: phantomEclipse, speedchuck, Garuru, Dank Memes
AProcrastinatingWriter: Palamedes
Speedchuck: dichotomousCreator

Dayend: Garuru
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:27 PM
Post: #146
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
APW claimed Card #2 for his drunkchoice, so yeah there's better than 50% odds pE can tell us what he is

pE please do not reveal until Deens has picked a card number
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:35 PM
Post: #147
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 04:23 AM)phantomEclipse Wrote:  
(07-23-2015 02:49 AM)Palamedes Wrote:  Worth noting though that pE said there was only one wolf and then said he saw the troublemaker/minion.
but that's not the case. If you had read what i said earlier. i was saying there is FOR SURE one wolf and then the other one is ww/tanner.

then there was the complete off chance that there are two werewolves and a tanner among us. but we know for sure that minion and troublemaker are not being used (unless drunk has swiped one of them) on that note


also what did you pick last night APW?. I mean like, the card number

(07-23-2015 10:37 AM)Alter Eagle Wrote:  I am pretty sure that (given uncontested seerclaim) we're dealing with at least one werewolf, so Hunter shooting the Tanner would actually result in wolfwin?

(07-23-2015 10:56 AM)Alter Eagle Wrote:  Oh hey Deens what number Unused Card did you take?

p much same thought process i had before you asked, alter.

but yeah i didnt plan on saying my cards until the drunks outted their cards

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:35 PM
Post: #148
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
also unvote

inb4 dini picks same card as apw

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:37 PM
Post: #149
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
(07-23-2015 01:00 PM)Granolaman Wrote:  If the Hunter shoots the Tanner, the Tanner wins, everyone else loses.

The Unused cards are all in the same order for Seer, Drunk, and Lone Wolf.

when you say "lone wolf" was that a slip for there is only one wolf?

or did you mean to type "werewolf"?

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply
07-23-2015, 01:38 PM
Post: #150
RE: One Night Werewolf (10/10) Round 1 Start
QUADRUPLE HOLY FUCKING SHIT

ive had a long ass day and just got home

need i remind everyone that besides the card i didnt learn. there was the chance wolf learned that card and is using it as a guise that therefore could be uncced UNLESS it was Tanner or the other WW for the last card

It's time to, T-T-T-T-T-T TRIPLE POST
Reply


Forum Jump: